MARKET COMPASS
Markets Start FOMC Week
- Global markets are eagerly awaiting the decisions of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve to be completed on Wednesday.
- The FED is not expected to change its policy interest rate. Although it is thought that the interest rate will not be cut at this meeting, the easing of trade war tensions between the US and China in the past week and the better-than-expected US employment data for April seem to keep the risk appetite alive in the markets.
- However, markets started the week with a mixed outlook. Except for China, Hong Kong, Japan and UK stock markets, which are closed today due to holidays, indices tend to stay on the positive side. Wall Street futures, on the other hand, point to a negative opening after Friday’s strong rally.
- Major digital assets retreated slightly after rallying on expectations of continued institutional investor interest and easing tensions over the trade war.
- Decisions from the FOMC meeting may also have an impact on the value of cryptocurrencies. Accordingly, it would not be surprising to see relatively horizontal price changes until Wednesday evening. We continue to maintain our short, medium and long-term expectation as bullish with intermediate corrections.
ISM Services PMI; The Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) is a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers excluding the manufacturing industry. Conducted by The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), this survey of approximately 300 purchasing managers asks respondents to assess the relative level of business conditions, including employment, production, new orders, prices, supplier deliveries and inventories. It is usually published monthly on the third business day after the end of the month, with a score above 50.0 indicating that the sector is expanding and below 50.0 indicating contraction. In general, a lower-than-expected ISM Services PMI is expected to have a positive impact on digital assets by pricing in expectations regarding the monetary policy course of the US Federal Reserve (FED). However, in some cases, it may also lead to pricing based on the strength of the economy. In this case, figures above expectations have a positive effect on digital assets.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, there will not be a development that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually decrease. Accordingly, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish expectation. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| – | IOTA (IOTA) Rebased Upgrade | – | – |
| – | Kaspa (KAS) Crescendo V1 on Mainnet (Hard Fork) | – | – |
| – | Hyperliquid (HYPE) New Fee & Staking Tiers | – | – |
| – | Livepeer (LPT) Treasury Talk | – | – |
| – | FLOKI (FLOKI) AMA with Core Advisor | – | – |
| – | Golem (GLM) Testnet | – | – |
| 13:45 | US Final Services PMI (Apr) | 51.4 | 51.4 |
| 14:00 | US ISM Services PMI (Apr) | 50.2 | 50.8 |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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