Darkex Evening Analysis – December 26, 2024

MARKET SUMMARY

Latest Situation in Crypto Assets

*Prepared on 12.26.2024 at 14:00 (UTC)

WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND

Nayib Bukele Plans to Visit Russia: Bitcoin on the Program

It was stated that El Salvador President Nayib Bukele could hold a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow in 2025. While it was stated that Bitcoin will also be included in the meeting program, it was emphasized that the realization of this meeting may depend on Donald Trump’s Russia policies.

Japan Takes a Clear Stance on Bitcoin Reserves

While Japan is interested in the growing popularity, value and trading volumes of cryptocurrencies, it remains cautious about holding Bitcoin as a national reserve. The government’s stance is driven by the high volatility of crypto assets and regulatory inconsistencies.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY

Important Economic Calender Data

*There is no important calendar data for the rest of the day.

INFORMATION:

*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations

MARKET COMPASS

On the fourth business day of the week, with many major European bourses closed, flat Wall Street futures declined, pointing to a negative opening. In the US, weekly jobless claims came in slightly below expectations. Ongoing applications, on the other hand, are at a three-year high and affected the decline in futures contracts. There was no clear movement in the US dollar after the data.

The declines in major digital assets that started with the Asian session this morning continued during European trading and the retreat continued with low volumes. The positive sentiment in traditional markets, driven by special news flows in Asian countries such as Japan and China, could not be maintained. This also had an impact on cryptocurrencies. Until the end of the first week of January, we maintain our expectation that we will follow a horizontal course with prices fluctuating between rises and falls. For the long term, our view is as follows.

From the short term to the big picture.

The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. Afterwards, the appointments made by the president-elect and the increasing regulatory expectations for the crypto ecosystem in the US and the emergence of BTC as a reserve continued to take place in our equation as positive variables. Although it is expected to continue at a slower pace, the FED’s signal that it will continue its interest rate cut cycle and the volume in crypto-asset based ETFs indicating an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition to MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, BlackRock’s BTC ETF options starting to trade…) support our upward forecast for the big picture for now.

In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pauses or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth emphasizing again that the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTC/USDT

Last week, MicroStrategy took a major step to increase its influence in the digital assets space, announcing a massive $42 billion plan. The company aims to raise capital with a proposal to increase the number of shares from 330 million to 10.33 billion. This change is designed to strengthen MicroStrategy’s position as the Bitcoin Treasury Company and more effectively manage digital asset strategies.

When we look at the technical outlook, BTC, which has a double bottom formation, tested above the 99,000 level, which is the resistance level, and then invalidated the formation by not being permanent here. BTC, which switched to a rectangular pattern with the double top seen after the double bottom, is currently pricing at 95,700. With technical oscillators giving a sell signal on the hourly chart, the retreating price caused momentum to weaken. With the deepening of the retreat, closures below the 95,000 level could bring the price back to the 92,550 level. If it recovers with the support it will receive from here, we will follow the resistance levels of 97,200 and then 99,100 respectively.

Supports 95,000 – 92,550 – 90,000

Resistances 97,200 – 99,100 – 102,500

ETH/USDT

Ethereum (ETH) continues its downward movement after a negative divergence in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator during the day. This divergence has led to a more pronounced weakness in price action. As mentioned in the morning analysis, the negative scenario, which started when ETH broke out of the Kumo cloud and accelerated with the decline in momentum, continued during the day.

The price breaking below the Kijun level of $3,379 can be considered as one of the most important catalysts that increased the downward pressure. The Kijun line is a critical reference point for price stability in Ichimoku analysis and the loss of this level set the stage for continued selling pressure. Moreover, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator crossed into negative territory and headed downwards, indicating that market liquidity is decreasing and capital outflows are accelerating. This stands out as another negative signal that supports the weakening trend of the price.

Failing to regain the 3,379 level, the ETH price is expected to fall as low as $3,293 in the evening hours. The 3,293 level stands out as an important support point. On a decline towards this level, there is a possibility that the RSI indicator may produce a positive divergence. In such a case, the possibility of an upward rebound in the price with reaction purchases from the 3,293 level can be evaluated. However, it should be noted that if this support level is broken, the selling pressure may deepen further and the price may test new lows. If the 3,379 level is regained, this may weaken the effects of the negative outlook and allow the market to signal a recovery. If the price holds above the Kijun level, it will be possible for the price to regain upward momentum.

Supports 3,293 – 3,131- 3,033

Resistances 3,379 – 3,510 – 3,670

XRP/USDT

XRP broke below the critical 2.18 support level amid a general pullback in the markets. The move led to a negative outlook for the price, supported by technical indicators.

Looking at the Ichimoku indicator, the convergence of the Kijun and Tenkan levels is considered a negative signal indicating that market momentum is weakening. This convergence is a warning that the downward movement of the price may continue. In addition, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator moved into the negative territory, confirming that market liquidity has decreased and selling pressure has increased. The fact that CMF remains in negative territory indicates that capital outflows are continuing and this is putting downward pressure on the price.

The negative trend in the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator also supports that the sell side is gaining strength. The RSI moving towards the oversold zone indicates that the price may remain under pressure for a while. Accordingly, the $2.08 level stands out as a critical support point for XRP. If this level is maintained, the price is likely to get a reaction from here. However, breaking this support may increase selling pressure and cause lower levels to be tested.

On the other hand, if the price regains the $2.18 level and holds above this zone, it could be a signal of recovery for XRP in the short term. In this case, the price can be expected to make an attack up to the $ 2.32 level with an upward movement. The 2.32 level is a resistance point that needs to be overcome in order for the upward movement to continue, and crossing this zone may enable the price to make a stronger recovery.

Supports 2.0867 – 1.9638- 1.6309

Resistances 2.1800 – 2.3236 – 2.4230

SOL/USDT

SOL has struggled to recover from its losses in recent days and demand has been noticeably reduced over the past few days. As we approach the end of the year, many investors are choosing to take no action in the volatility associated with this transitional period. This could leave SOL vulnerable to further price declines unless significant market activity resumes.

Since our morning analysis, Solana has accelerated its bearish move. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is below the 200 EMA (Black Line). As a matter of fact, the asset tested the 50 EMA resistance and the 200.00 level, which is a strong resistance, but failed to break it, falling about 5%. If it retests and breaks here, the uptrend may continue. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator is in negative territory, but inflows have started to increase. This seems to have reduced the selling pressure a little. However, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is in the neutral zone. The 209.93 level appears to be a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the news in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements for the opposite reasons or due to profit sales, the 163.80 support level can be triggered. If the price comes to these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 189.54 – 181.75 – 163.80

Resistances 200.00 – 209.93 – 222.61

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin (DOGE) traders have experienced significant liquidation in the last 24 hours. In particular, long traders of the popular meme coin recorded significant losses compared to short traders. DOGE’s total liquidation amounted to $11.18 million, while the total liquidation of long position traders amounted to $9.90 million. Short positions liquidated a total of $1.28 million.

When we look at the chart, DOGE, which has been in a downtrend since December 8, gained momentum from the support of this trend and after consolidating in the middle of the trend, it tested the 50 EMA as resistance but could not break it and the decline deepened and lost about 7.17%. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be below the 200 EMA (Black Line). When we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it moved into the negative zone. But money outflows started to decrease. However, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 continues to move from the neutral zone to the oversold zone. The 0.36600 level appears as a very strong resistance level in the rises due to both the upcoming macroeconomic data and the innovations in the Doge coin. If DOGE catches a new momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of possible pullbacks due to macroeconomic reasons or negativity in the ecosystem, the 0.25025 level, which is the base level of the trend, is an important support. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 0.28164 – 0.25025 – 0.21154

Resistances 0.33668 – 0.36600 – 0.42456

LEGAL NOTICE

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.