Darkex Evening Analysis - October 4, 2024 - Darkex Official Academy Area

Non-farm payrolls and unemployment data, which are crucial for Fed’s rate cuts, will be released at noon today. The higher-than-expected private sector employment figures raised doubts that the Fed might cut interest rates by 25 basis points instead of 50.

Gold and Bitcoin commentary from JPMorgan analysts

Analysts at JPMorgan, one of the world’s largest banks, said that investors could switch to Bitcoin and gold due to the depreciation of local currencies, and that geopolitical events and US elections could accelerate this.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY

INFORMATION

*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.

MARKET COMPASS

US employment data surprises

The US employment data for September, which was eagerly awaited by the markets, was announced. While the US economy was expected to have provided 150 thousand jobs in the non-farm sectors in the relevant period, the related data was announced as 254 thousand. The unemployment rate, which was expected to remain at 4.2%, was realized as 4.1%. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is a 12% chance that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 50 basis points on November 7th, which was around 30.0% before the data release. As Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials have repeatedly emphasized recently, the data pointed to a strong job market in the US economy. The dollar appreciated after the release of the relevant macro indicators. In line with this pricing behavior, digital assets retreated, albeit limited, as a first effect.
We find it remarkable that the stock market indices did not fall after the data indicating that the FED may refrain from rapid steps on the interest rate cut route. The figures, which can be evaluated that the economy is healthier than thought, may give a clue that the world’s largest economy can avoid recession, and we can say that stock investors do not ignore this. If this pricing model continues in this way, we may see a positive reflection on digital assets. However, this mood may be limited by the geopolitical agenda.

Entering the Weekend

The important US data, which has been on the agenda of the markets, has left the stage for now. While the employment market remains so buoyant, the country’s inflation indicators, which will be released next week, are likely to be of critical importance. If the possibility of a recession starts to gain weight, we may see a positive impact on risk appetite. Still, geopolitical risks should not be ignored. Potential news flow from the Middle East is still an important factor in investor perception and pricing behavior. Therefore, it seems that the macro outlook will continue to be priced under the shadow of the news flow from this front.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTC/USDT

Critical macroeconomic data was released in the US. US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures of 254K showed that the labor market was stronger than expected. Expectations were 150K, indicating that the US economy exceeded forecasts in terms of job creation. The unemployment rate was announced as 4.1% while it was expected to be 4.2%, indicating that unemployment also decreased slightly. These data indicate that the demand for employment is strong, especially in the supply-demand balance in the labor market, and that it is a positive data for the US economy. In line with the data coming from the crypto market, the moderate approach in the FED interest rate cut policy may restrict the possible funds that may come to risky assets to some extent. On the other hand, the ongoing geopolitical tension in the Middle East creates a question mark in the crypto market. Reports indicate that there will be a response on the Israeli front in the near future. In the BTC 4-hour technical analysis, we see that the price, which came to the level of 61,750 in the upward direction after critical macroeconomic data, is currently moving at the level of 61,950, strengthening the upward momentum. In line with the data coming from the US market, fluctuations in stocks may be reflected in the BTC price and volatility may increase. In the upward movement, 62,300 will be the resistance level and in the downward movement, our support level will be 60,650 points.

Supports 60,650 – 59,400 – 58,350

Resistances 62,300 – 64,400 – 65,725

ETH/USDT

Ethereum rose to 2,400 levels during the day with the release of US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data and retreated a little. RSI continues its positive outlook. CMF has a neutral outlook. Closes above the 2,400 level, along with exceeding the Tenkan level, may also trigger rises up to the kijun level of 2,490 resistance. Looking at CVDs, it is seen that the upward pricing is coming from the spot side. As long as there is no change in the news flow, it can be said that a slightly positive trend has started. The break of the 2.346 level may cause deep declines again.

Supports 2,346 – 2,270 – 2,194

Resistances 2,400 – 2,428 – 2,490

LINK/USDT

Exceeding the 10.85 level, the positive structure continues for LINK, which has started to rise slightly. All indicators except CMF have started to generate buy signals. Persistence above the 10.85 level may bring rises up to 11.55 levels. However, breakouts below this level may trigger declines to 10.30 levels again. Another important indicator is the reacceleration of smart contract transactions on Ethereum. It can be said that the increases in liquidity pools in DEXs led by Uniswap after the EIGEN listing and the volume increases, especially in OG NFTs, also have positive effects on LINK.

Supports 10.85 – 10.30 – 9.29

Resistances 11.55 – 11.86 – 12.42

SOL/USDT

Data from the US showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 254 thousand in September. The expectation was 147 thousand. This can be considered as positive for the US. Unemployment rate data was reflected as 4.1. The expectation was 4.2. The decline in unemployment and the positive non-farm payrolls made the dollar stronger and prepared the environment for an interest rate cut. In the Solana ecosystem, data from Coinglass showed that a noticeable lack of volume was effective in SOL’s recent price decline. This was supported by a significant decline in Open Interest. Open Interest fell sharply by around 8% and stood at $2.20 billion at the time of writing. Technically, the price seems to have recovered compared to the previous hours. 135.18 support level is working and has started to rise from here. Both macroeconomic conditions and the level of 143.64 appear as resistance in the rises caused by innovations in the Solana ecosystem. If it rises above this level, the rise may continue. In the sales that investors will make due to political and macroeconomic conditions, the support levels of 135.18 – 127.17 should be followed. If the price comes to these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise.

Supports 137.77 – 135.18 – 127.17

Resistances 143.64 – 147.40 – 151.12

ADA/USDT

Data from the US showed that non-farm payrolls increased by 254 thousand in September. The expectation was 147 thousand. This can be considered as positive for the US. Unemployment rate data was reflected as 4.1. The expectation was 4.2. The decline in unemployment and the positive non-farm payrolls made the dollar strong and prepared the environment for an interest rate cut. In the Cardano ecosystem, Cardano’s Decentralized Identity (DID) move is gaining momentum. New technology HyperLedger Identus could change the game. Founder Charles Hoskinson discussed the technology shift from Prism to HyperLedger Identus. This major technology shift took place in the ecosystem about ten months ago. The transition involved new decentralized solutions and Hoskinson described it as an Apache2 open source framework for identity applications. When we look technically, it has risen by testing the support formed since August 6. The 0.3301 level stands out as a strong support in the pullbacks to be experienced with possible political and macroeconomic news. At the same time, the 200 EMA could not break the 50 EMA average. This could be a bullish sign. If the positive atmosphere in the ecosystem continues, 0.3596 – 0.3651 levels appear as strong resistance. In the continuation of the fear in the market, 0.3301 – 0.3166 levels can be followed as support. If it breaks these levels, the decline may deepen.

Supports 0.3469 – 0.3301 – 0.3228

Resistances 0.3596 – 0.3651 – 0.3724

AVAX/USDT

AVAX, which opened today at 24.66, is trading at 25.83, rising about 5% during the day. On the 4-hour chart, it is moving in the Bollinger middle band and can be expected to rise slightly from these levels with the RSI 46 value. In such a case, it may move to the Bollinger upper band and test the 26.54 resistance. In case of a sales reaction from the Bollinger middle band, it may test the 24.65 support. As long as it stays above 24.65 support during the day, the desire to rise may continue. With the break of 24.65 support, sales may increase.

Supports 25.60 – 24.65 – 23.80

Resistances 26.54 – 27.20 – 28.50

TRX/USDT

TRX, which started today at 0.1576, moved horizontally during the day and is currently trading at 0.1573. On the 4-hour chart, it is in the Bollinger upper band and can be expected to move down a little from its level with the RSI value of 57. In such a case, it may move to the Bollinger middle band and test the 0.1550 support. If the tension in the Middle East decreases, it may want to test 0.1603 resistance by closing the candle above 0.1575 resistance. TRX may continue to be bullish as long as it stays above 0.1482 support. If this support is broken downwards, sales can be expected to increase.

Supports 0.1550 – 0.1532 – 0.1500

Resistances 0.1575 – 0.1603 – 0.1641

XRP/USDT

XRP, which started today at 0.5214, continues to trade at 0.5268 with an increase of approximately 1%. When we analyze the 4-hour analysis, XRP is trading in a horizontal band between 0.52 and 0.53 levels. After testing the 0.5231 support level in the decline in the 4-hour analysis, it could not break it and continued to be traded in a horizontal band. With the economic data announced by the US being positive for the crypto market, an upward movement started in the market. In this process, XRP rose from 0.5240 to 0.5270 levels after the release of the data. If the rise continues, XRP may test the resistance levels of 0.5351-0.5431-0.5515. If the rise gives way to a decline, it may test the support levels of 0.5231-0.5131-0.5026 with its decline.
XRP may decline on its rise with possible sales at 0.54 and 0.55 levels and may offer a short trading opportunity. In its decline, it may offer a long trading opportunity with purchases that may come at 0.51 levels.

EMA20 (Blue Line) – EMA50 (Green Line) – EMA200 (Purple Line)

Supports 0. 5231 – 0. 5131 – 0.5026

Resistances 0. 5351 – 0.5431 – 0.5515

DOGE/USDT

After starting today at 0.1050, DOGE continues to trade at 0.1097, up about 4.3%. In the 4-hour analysis, DOGE declined with sales from the EMA20 and EMA200 levels in its rise today. With the economic data released by the US being positive for the crypto market, it retested the EMA20 and EMA200 levels with its rise in the last candle in the 4-hour analysis and is trading above it. DOGE may test the resistance levels of 0.1101-0.1122-0.1149 in the continuation of the rise. In case of a decline, it may test the support levels of 0.1080-0.1054-0.1035.
In the DOGE 4-hour analysis, if the last candle closes above the EMA20 and EMA200, it may offer a long trading opportunity with the continuation of the rise. It may also offer a short trading opportunity if it closes below these levels and declines. In case of a decline, it may rise again with the purchases that may come at 0.1054.

EMA20 (Blue Line) – EMA50 (Green Line) – EMA200 (Purple Line)

Supports 0.1080 – 0.1054 – 0.1035

Resistances 0.1101 – 0.1122 – 0.1149

DOT/USDT

When we examine the Polkadot (DOT) chart, the price rose above the EMA50 after the positive mismatch on the RSI. As a result of the price’s reaction from the EMA50 level, we see that it rose to the 4,180 resistance level. According to the MACD oscillator, buyer pressure seems to have decreased compared to the previous hour. In this context, if the price fails to persist above 4,180, it may correct down to the EMA50 level. On the other hand, according to the CMF oscillator, we see that the buyer pressure is strong compared to the seller pressure. If the price maintains above the 4,180 level, its next target may be the 4,210 resistance level.

(Blue line: EMA50, Red line: EMA200)

Supports 4.080 – 3.975 – 3.875

Resistances 4.180 – 4.210 – 4.265

SHIB/USDT

When we examine the chart of Shiba Inu (SHIB), the price rose up to 0.00001765 and seems to have sold off from this level. We see that the EMA50 line is accelerating upwards and moving towards the EMA200 line. In case the EMA50 line breaks the EMA200 line upwards (Golden Cross), the price may move towards the 0.00001810 resistance level. On the other hand, SHIB, which made its correction with the reaction it received from the 0.00001765 level, may retreat towards the EMA200 level.

(Blue line: EMA50, Red line: EMA200)

Supports 0.00001690 – 0.00001630 – 0.00001565

Resistances 0.00001765 – 0.00001810 – 0.00001860

LEGAL NOTICE

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.

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