Darkex Morning Analysis – December 4, 2024

MARKET SUMMARY

Latest Situation in Crypto Assets

*Prepared on 12.4.2024 at 07:00 (UTC)

WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND

Trump Nominates Pro-Crypto Paul Atkins for SEC Chairmanship

Donald Trump is preparing to nominate Paul Atkins, a crypto-friendly figure, for the chairmanship of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Atkins served as SEC commissioner under George W. Bush and has long been a supporter of the crypto industry. According to Unchained Crypto, although the nomination has not yet been officially accepted, Atkins’ election is considered a positive signal for the crypto market.

Martial Law Declared in South Korea

The Korean Martial Law Command has announced a total ban on political activities across South Korea as of 23:00 on December 3, 2024. This ban includes the National Assembly and local governments, as well as political associations and meetings. At the same time, South Korean crypto exchange Upbit announced delays due to increased traffic.

Bitcoin Balance on Exchanges Declines

The total Bitcoin balance on exchanges has dropped to about 2.312 million BTC, according to HODL15Capital. This represents a decrease of 116,200 BTC in the last month and a 12.8% year-to-date decrease, totaling 315,800 BTC. This trend shows that investors continue to adopt a long-term custody strategy by moving their Bitcoins off-exchange.

Inactive Bitcoin Whale Transfers 2,700 BTC

Onchain Lens reported that a Bitcoin whale that has been inactive for 11 years has transferred 2,700 BTC (approximately $259 million) to two new wallets. These Bitcoins were acquired in 2013 when the Bitcoin price was only $625.84 and were worth only $1.68 million at the time. This transaction stands out among the significant movements from old wallets.

Pump.Fun Deposits Another 100,000 SOL on Kraken

Pump.Fun transferred another 100,000 SOLs worth approximately $23.72 million to the Kraken exchange this morning. So far, the company has deposited a total of 1,595,278 SOL (approximately $380 million at current prices). These transfers are seen as a remarkable step reflecting the huge investment interest in SOL.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY

Important Economic Calender Data

INFORMATION:

*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.

MARKET COMPASS

While global markets are trying to gather information on what the US Federal Reserve (FED) will do next, they are also closely following political developments around the world. The martial law declared in South Korea yesterday lasted only hours as the parliament lifted it. In France, a motion of no confidence in the government will be voted today.

Yesterday, digital currencies were affected by the news flow from South Korea and suffered short-lived losses. The subsequent buying helped erase the losses ahead of the new day when investors will start to focus more on the FED. Today, both the data calendar and officials’ statements will be in focus on the global markets.

Macro indicators ahead of Powell…

Today, the US economy will be watching the November ADP non-farm payrolls change and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data for the services sector. Every data is important, but ADP data, which will provide important information ahead of Friday’s critical Non-Farm Payroll Change (NFP) and includes data on private sector employment, will be closely monitored.

The US economy, which employed 233 thousand people in the non-farm and private sectors in October, is expected to have created 152 thousand jobs in November. If the data to be announced comes above this forecast, expectations that the FED will not be in a hurry to cut interest rates may strengthen and we may see the negative impact of this on digital assets. A figure that will remain within the forecasts may support the recent rises.

Powell ahead of December 18th…

Fed Chair Powell will participate in a discussion at the New York Times DealBook Summit. We will continue to listen to the evaluations of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) officials at various events later in the week, but of course, the Chairman’s sentences may be very important.

Please click here to review our assessments in our weekly report on this issue.

You can also click here to review our December Strategy Report prepared by Darkex Research Department.

From the short term to the big picture.

The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our forecasts. In the aftermath, the president-elect’s appointments to Congress and the increased regulatory expectations for the crypto ecosystem in the US remained in our equation as a positive variable. Although Powell gave cautious messages in his last speech, the fact that the FED continued its interest rate cut cycle and the volume in BTC ETFs indicates an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition, MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, Microsoft’s start to evaluate the purchase issue, BlackRock’s BTC ETF options start trading…) supports our upward forecast for the big picture for now.

In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional respite or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it would be useful to underline again that the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTC/USDT

Important developments continue to take place on the Bitcoin front. While US President Donald Trump is preparing to nominate Paul Atkins, known as a crypto-friendly name, for the chairmanship of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), a consensus has not yet been reached on the candidate front. On the other hand, political crises in South Korea caused local centralized crypto exchanges to cease operations, creating short-term volatility in the crypto market.

After all these developments, when we look at the technical outlook, the price, which fell below the support level of 95,000, tested the 93,600 level, but did not close below it and turned its direction up again. With the positive course of the US stock markets, the positive outlook in BTC spot ETFs has moved to the fourth day. BTC is currently trading above the 50- and 100-day SMA lines at 96,600. Technical oscillators give a buy signal on the hourly charts, while the momentum indicator continues to weaken in negative territory. In upward movements, the minor resistance level 97,000 can be followed by 98,200 levels. When we look at Onchain data, although stock market reserves continue to fall, although we see that there are transfers in the name of profit sales, the 95,000 level remains support in a possible retreat.

Supports 95,000 – 92,500 – 90,000

Resistances 99,655 – 100,000 – 105,000

ETH/USDT

ETH fell as low as 3,500 yesterday with South Korea’s martial law announcement, but managed to rise above the 3,670 resistance with the reaction it received from here. During this move, we see that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) turned from its important support point and headed up again.  Chaikin Money Flow (CMF), on the other hand, continues its upward outlook by re-entering the positive area. On the Ichimoku indicator, although the negative outlook at the tenkan level continues, pricing on the kumo cloud maintains its neutral outlook. In Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD), we see that spot purchases continue and sales are coming on the futures side. The decline in the Funding rate from 0.42 to 0.26 can be considered as another positive factor. With all these data, we can see that the rise continues during the day, especially with the break of the important resistance level of 3,670. Closures above the 3,744 level may bring harder candles. Below the 3.670 level, some further retracement can be seen.

Supports 3,670 – 3,534 – 3,459

Resistances 3,744- 3,839 – 3,943

XRP/USDT

XRP also corrected significantly with the South Korean news, dropping to 2.29 levels, but quickly recovered and managed to rise above the 2.5 level again. With this move, it can be said that the Relative Strength Index (RSI), which was in the overbought zone, left the zone and turned more positive. However, the negative outlook on Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) continues.
However, despite this outlook, the positive divergence on CMF attracts attention. It can be said that momentum has reached the bottom levels and may receive a possible reaction. In summary, unless XRP closes below the 2.5 level, the rise can be expected to continue. However, closures below this level may bring the continuation of the correction movement.

Supports 2.5014- 1. 1982- 1. 8758

Resistances 2.6971 – 3.105

SOL/USDT

Today, FED Chairman Powell’s speech is among the data to be followed. Powell is expected to give information about the interest rate decision to be announced in the coming days. According to data from CME, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 73.8% at the time of writing. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing fluctuations. South Korea’s recent declaration of martial law has upended global cryptocurrency markets, sending shockwaves through trading activity and causing significant price volatility.

In the Solana ecosystem, asset management firm Grayscale Investments has applied to list the Spot Solana ETF on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE). This application proves that Grayscale wants to be among the firms currently pushing to list the product in the United States. This application makes Grayscale the fifth asset firm to file for a Solana ETF product. Previously, Canary Capital, VanEck, 21Shares and Bitwise had applied.

When we look at the chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line) in the 4-hour timeframe. Since November 22, SOL, which has been in a downtrend since November 22, broke the downtrend last week and moved upwards. However, this did not last long and it rejoined the downtrend.  However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it is seen that there is an increase in money inflows. This can be shown as a bullish signal. However, Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 is at neutral level.  Another potential directional indicator on the chart, the shoulder head and shoulders pattern, has started to work. This could lead to a decline to 189.54 if the pattern continues to work. On the other hand, the price entered an uptrend with support from the 200 EMA. The 247.53 level is a very strong resistance point in the uptrend driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of retracements due to possible macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, the support levels of 209.93 and 189.54 may be triggered again. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 222.61 – 209.93 – 200.00

Resistances 237.53 – 247.53 – 259.13

DOGE/USDT

Today, FED Chairman Powell’s speech is among the data to be followed. Powell is expected to give information about the interest rate decision to be announced in the coming days. According to data from CME, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 73.8% at the time of writing. The cryptocurrency market is experiencing fluctuations. South Korea’s recent declaration of martial law has upended global cryptocurrency markets, sending shockwaves through trading activity and causing significant price volatility.

Whales continue to accumulate the meme coin, which could lead to further gains in the near future. This is because Elon Musk is scheduled to address Congress on December 5th, which could give Dogecoin momentum and potential upside.

When we look at the chart, the asset, which has been in an uptrend since November 11, is testing the base level of the trend once again by entering a downward trend, although it has been rising with support from both the base level of the trend and the 50 EMA. If the upward momentum is strong, the 0.50954 level may be triggered. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line). But the gap between the two averages is still too wide. This may cause pullbacks. On the other hand, when we look at the RSI 14 indicator, we see that it is at a neutral level. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, we see that there are money outflows. The 0.50954 level appears to be a very strong resistance place in the rises due to both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in Doge coin. If DOGE maintains its momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of retracements due to possible macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, the 0.36600 support level can be triggered again. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.28164

Resistances 0.42456 – 0.45173 – 0.50954

LEGAL NOTICE

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.