TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
As cryptocurrency markets enter a period of renewed institutional investor interest, this uptrend is supported by strategic moves by key players. Tower Research Capital’s increased capital allocation to crypto and its focus on market-making, particularly for Bitcoin, is a testament to the institutional orientation in the US. Strong inflows into BlackRock’s IBIT ETF for 15 consecutive days have increased Bitcoin’s attractiveness compared to gold ETFs, suggesting that it is poised to take the lead in asset management. On the other hand, the UK’s refusal to create a national crypto reserve, unlike the US, reveals that digital asset policies are evolving in different directions among countries.
Looking at the technical outlook, BTC, which headed towards the 95,000 level with a buy signal in the previous analysis, is showing a downward trend again. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at 93,900, just below the 94,000-support level. The Wave trend oscillator has hit the oversold zone and started generating a sell signal this time, indicating continued short-term weakness. According to liquidation data, if the long positions concentrated at 93,000 become targets, breaking the 92,800 support, which we have emphasized before, may increase the selling pressure. The negative sentiment in the futures market is also an important indicator supporting this possibility. The downward movements that may be seen in the market one day before the Fed rate meeting, coupled with the uncertainty created by Powell’s statements, may pull the price down to 89,000. However, in another scenario, the 95,000 level remains an important reference point. Breaching this level could allow BTC to return to its uptrend. However, in this case, it should be kept in mind that profit selling and heavy unrealized short positions in the region up to the 99,000 level could put pressure on the price.
Supports 94,000 – 92,800 – 91,400
Resistances 95,000 – 97,000 – 98,000
ETH/USDT
After breaking down the kumo cloud support at $ 1,798 in line with expectations during the day, ETH fell to the support level of $1,756 with increased selling pressure. At this point, the price recovered a little with the buyers coming into play and rose above the $1,770 level. When the intraday movements are analyzed, it is seen that this recovery remains limited and the price is still moving in an uncertain technical structure.
On the technical indicators side, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) data is particularly noteworthy. Although CMF remained in negative territory during the price decline, it did not show a significant decline. This indicates that there was no strong selling pressure in the spot market and the decline was mainly driven by futures markets. This data may provide a positive background for the price to rise again; however, the fact that the CMF is still in negative territory indicates that sufficient capital inflows have not yet been provided for bullish movements to be permanent. When the Ichimoku indicator is analyzed, the fact that the price sags below the kumo cloud and the tenkan level continues to trend downwards is a negative technical signal. This suggests that the price has yet to find a clear support and short-term pressure remains. However, momentum and Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicators showed a slight recovery after the recent price decline, suggesting that the market is trying to break out of oversold territory in the short term and there is upside potential. However, for these signals to gain confirmation, the price needs to break the critical resistance levels to the upside.
In the overall assessment, provided that the price maintains its support at $1,756, a bullish movement towards the lower band of the kumo cloud can be observed later in the day. Breaching this level could increase the buying momentum and take the price to the $1,829 level. On the other hand, a downside break of the $1,756 support could deepen the sell-off and accelerate the downtrend, leading to sharper pullbacks.
Supports 1,756 – 1,686 – 1,632
Resistances 1,829 – 1,925 – 2,131
XRP/USDT
In the morning hours, XRP broke the support point at the $2.12 level downwards and fell to the $2.08 region. With the purchases following this decline, the price recovered slightly to the level of $2.10. In technical terms, this break can be considered as a negative signal in the short term; however, the signs of recovery in some technical indicators offer clues that the decline may remain limited.
In particular, the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator displays a remarkable outlook. This indicator, which has been moving in the negative zone for a long time and signaling capital outflows, has started to show a positive divergence with the recent price movements. This development suggests that the amount of capital entering the market has started to increase and the buying pressure is gaining strength, even if prices are falling. In addition to this recovery in CMF, the momentum indicator is also trending upwards with the reaction from the price lows. This suggests that positive momentum, albeit weak, may come into play in the short term. However, the outlook is still under pressure when looking at the Ichimoku indicator. The downward expansion of the kumo cloud confirms that the overall trend of the market is weak, while tenkan and kijun levels continue to trend lower, indicating that technical pressure continues in the short to medium term. Taken together, it is clear that the price needs stronger buyer interest to sustain at current levels.
In the overall assessment, closures below the $2.12 level could pave the way for a new wave of declines that could technically carry the XRP price down to the $2.02 level. In this scenario, the negative structure of the ichimoku indicator will support downward pressure. On the other hand, the recovery trend in the CMF and momentum indicators may allow the price to retest the $2.12 level. If this resistance is broken to the upside and sustained above it, a new uptrend may begin for XRP, and the price may target higher levels.
Supports 2.0201 – 1.8932 – 1.6309
Resistances 2.1204 – 2.2154 – 2.3938
SOL/USDT
SOL price declined during the day. The asset continues to be in the middle levels of the downtrend that started on April 25. After testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line), the price pulled back and broke the strong support at $144.35 and is preparing to test the 200 EMA (Black Line) as support. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continued to remain above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the uptrend may continue in the medium term. However, the fact that the price is between both moving averages suggests that the overall market is in the decision phase. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) remains negative, but the decline in daily inflows may cause CMF to reach the extremes of the negative zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI14) is at the mid-levels of the negative zone. Despite the upward trend, selling pressure continues. The $150.67 level stands out as a strong resistance point in case of an uptrend on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $138.73 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 138.73 – 133.74 – 127.21
Resistances 144.35 – 150.67 – 163.80
DOGE/USDT
The DOGE price kept pace with the crypto market, falling during the day. The asset continues to be priced below the downtrend that started on March 6. The asset, which tested the 200 EMA (Black Line) as resistance during the day, retreated from there and broke the strong support at $0.16686. If the declines continue, the strong support level of $0.15680 can be tested. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). The fact that the price is below both moving averages indicates that downward momentum is strong in the medium term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) indicator is in negative territory. At the same time, an increase in money outflows may move CMF deeper into the negative zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI14), on the other hand, tested the downtrend that started on May 1 as resistance and failed to break it and continued its decline and is at the oversold level. The $0.17766 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in the event of a rally in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.15680 level may be triggered. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.15680 – 0.14952 – 0.14237
Resistances 0.16686 – 0.17766 – 0.18566
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