MARKTKOMPASS
FOMC Day Arrives in the Markets
- Global markets have turned their attention to the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which will conclude today, and what Chairman Powell will say. The FED is expected to keep interest rates unchanged, but the messages regarding the interest rate cut course may have an impact on asset prices.
- There are new developments on trade wars and China and the US officials are expected to start talks on tariffs this weekend in Switzerland. It was announced that US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese officials in Switzerland this week. The Chinese side also confirmed that Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Hı Lifıng will meet with US officials.
- Wall Street futures are on the positive side with positive developments on tariffs. European stock markets are far from pricing in this optimism ahead of the FED for the time being, but digital assets gained value.
- News flow regarding the strategic crypto asset reserve and expectations that institutional investor interest will remain buoyant have contributed to the recent rises.
- The results of the FOMC meeting will be decisive in the rest of the day. Afterwards, we may see that expectations regarding tariffs are priced in. For the short term, we maintain our view that the uptrend may continue with intermediate corrections, and we do not change our medium and long term forecast as mentioned under the “Digital Compass” heading below.
FOMC Meeting
The third meeting of the year of the US Federal Reserve (FED), whose independence was questioned, albeit briefly, by Donald Trump’s statements, started yesterday (Mai 6-7). Although Trump later stated that he had no intention of firing Fed Chairman Powell, he continued to call for interest rate cuts. Markets do not expect a rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) today. However, possible clues on when the next rate cut may be made have the potential to be a determining variable for the direction of the markets in the short term. Therefore, it would not be wrong to say that all financial markets will closely monitor the FOMC decisions today.
The Fed’s current policy rate is in the range of 4.25%-4.50% and no change is expected at the next meeting. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, at the time of writing, the probability of a 25 bps rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on Juni 17-18, which ends on Juli 30, is priced at around 55%. Following the latest pricing, three rate cuts of 25 bps each are expected by the end of the year.
Today the FOMC will not update its dot plot and economic expectations. Therefore, the markets will focus more on whether there is a change in the interest rate and what is the forward guidance on this issue. We believe that the FED will leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. However, it is worth noting that if there is a surprise rate cut, this could have a positive impact on digital assets. If, as widely expected, the Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, markets will quickly look at the Bank’s decision text, which may provide information on the path of the rate cut. Statements on employment and inflation will be important at this point.
If the Fed sends a message that a rate cut is likely at the next meeting, we could see appreciation in financial instruments that are considered relatively risky. However, if there are strong messages that there will be no rush for another rate cut, as mentioned by the Bank’s Chairman Powell and some other FOMC members in their recent statements, it would not be wrong to say that this may put pressure on instruments, including digital assets.
Half an hour after the decision, attention will turn to Powell’s press conference. The possible effects of trade wars on the US economy, the independence of the FED and economic developments will be among the topics that will be carefully monitored during the Q&A session. However, we can say that the crucial issue will be the timing of the FED’s next interest rate cut move amid all these dynamics. Powell’s clues may be a decisive dynamic for the direction of prices in the short term.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, there will not be a development that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market and concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually decrease. Accordingly, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish outlook. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
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Highlights of The Day
Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders
| Zeit | Nachrichten | Erwartung | Vorherige |
|---|---|---|---|
| - | Stellar (XLM) SDF Q1 in Review | - | - |
| - | Pendle (PENDLE) Pendle Yield Talk | - | - |
| - | BNB (BNB) Binance Seeds Program AMA | - | - |
| - | ZKsync (ZK) Announcements | - | - |
| 18:00 | US FOMC Statement | - | - |
| 18:00 | US FED Interest Rate Decision | 4.50% | 4.50% |
| 18:30 | US FOMC Press Conference | - | - |
INFORMATIONEN
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