MARKTKOMPASS
After the US markets were closed on the first business day of the week due to a holiday, global markets have been relatively positive on the new day. In Asia-Pacific, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) rate cut after four years and Chinese leader Xi’s meeting with private sector companies (as well as the ongoing excitement over DeepSeek’s artificial intelligence capabilities) are seen positively. In Europe, defense stocks were bought after the extraordinary European Union (EU) security summit in Paris. Wall Street spot markets will start trading today and futures contracts are pointing to a slightly positive opening. Today, US and Russian officials are expected to meet in Saudi Arabia. It is stated that Ukraine peace will also be on the table.
In addition to this picture, the reflections of the rising dollar index, which stopped its recent losses with the statements from the US Federal Reserve (FED) officials, are being monitored. Christopher Waller, one of the FED governors, suggested a pause in interest rate cuts if inflation does not behave similarly to 2024. FED President Michelle Bowman also called for patience, suggesting that the FED should wait for more evidence that inflation is on track to reach the 2% target, while Philadelphia FED President Patrick Harker advocated keeping interest rates stable in a strong economy. The dollar index rose to around 107, halting a three-day decline. Despite the relatively positive sentiment in traditional markets, digital assets remained under pressure due to the appreciation in the dollar and expectations regarding the Fed’s rate cut path. We maintain our expectation of flat to volatile in the short term, slightly pressured in the medium term and bullish in the long term.
From the short term to the big picture.
Trump’s victory on November 5, one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our predictions. In the process that followed, the appointments made by the president-elect and the increasing regulatory expectations for the crypto ecosystem in the US, as well as the emergence of BTC as a reserve, continued to take place in our equation as positive variables. Then, 4 days after the new President took over the White House, he signed the “Cryptocurrency Working Unit” decree, which was among his election promises, and we think that the positive reflection of the outputs it will produce in the coming days on digital assets may continue.
On the other hand, the expectations that the FED will continue its interest rate cut cycle, albeit on hiatus for now, and the fact that the volume in crypto-asset ETFs indicates an increase in institutional investor interest, support our upside forecast for the big picture. In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional pause or pullbacks in digital assets. However, at this point, it is worth underlining again that we think the fundamental dynamics continue to be bullish.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders
| Zeit | Nachrichten | Erwartung | Vorherige |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flare (FLR) BERA Price Feed Integration | |||
| QuantixAI (QAI) 565.69K Token Unlock | |||
| Oasis (ROSE) 56M Token Unlock | |||
| 13:30 | US NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (Feb) | -1.9 | 12.60 |
| 15:20 | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | ||
| 18:00 | FOMC Member Barr Speaks |
INFORMATIONEN
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RECHTLICHER HINWEIS
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
