Darkex Evening Analysis – November 21, 2024

MARKET SUMMARY

Latest Situation in Crypto Assets

*Prepared on 11.21.2024 at 13:30 (UTC)

WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND

MicroStrategy beats SPY, Nvidia and Tesla, reaches highest volume

MicroStrategy is buying more and more Bitcoin every day, and the rise in Bitcoin price has also been reflected in the shares. MSTR shares, which have risen nearly 600% since the beginning of the year, surpassed the volume of highly traded companies such as Nvidia and Tesla yesterday. MSTR also doubled its volume against SPY, one of the most traded exchange-traded funds.

Michael Saylor may have lost voting power at MicroStrategy over Bitcoin strategy

At MicroStrategy, which has been regularly purchasing Bitcoin since 2020, it was claimed that Michael Saylor lost his voting power over the company. Based on recent bond issuances for Bitcoin purchases, Saylor may no longer hold more than 50% of the total voting rights. This could mean that the company is deprived of important rights, including on the Nasdaq stock exchange, and even the Bitcoin buying strategy could be jeopardized.

Network stopped at SUI, the rise of the last period, token value fell 10 percent

Sui reported that the official Sui statement said that the Sui network has restarted and processed transactions and that the 2-hour outage was caused by a bug in the transaction scheduling logic, which caused the validator to crash and that the problem has now been resolved.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY

Wichtige Daten des Wirtschaftskalenders

INFORMATIONEN

*Der Kalender basiert auf der Zeitzone UTC (Coordinated Universal Time).

Der Inhalt des Wirtschaftskalenders auf der entsprechenden Seite wird von zuverlässigen Nachrichten- und Datenanbietern bezogen. Die Nachrichten im Wirtschaftskalender, das Datum und die Uhrzeit der Bekanntgabe der Nachrichten, mögliche Änderungen der bisherigen, erwarteten und angekündigten Zahlen werden von den datenliefernden Institutionen vorgenommen. Darkex kann nicht für mögliche Änderungen verantwortlich gemacht werden, die sich aus ähnlichen Situationen ergeben können.

MARKTKOMPASS

While the news that Russia used intercontinental weapons for the first time during the latest attack by Ukraine was on the agenda, the period after “Trump’s victory” in digital assets continues at full speed. On the other hand, the US data released on the other hand came under the scrutiny of investors and we saw that the applications for unemployment benefits remained below expectations. The statements of the US Federal Reserve (FED) officials will continue to be monitored by the traditional markets for the rest of the day.

Bitcoin extended its record high again today, and this time we saw the major cryptocurrencies accompanying the rise. ETH made the most notable move. News of BTC reserve plans from companies such as Genius Group and Mara Holdings, and expectations that Trump will continue to build his new cabinet with crypto-friendly names, continue to be the driving force behind the rise in digital assets.

From the short term to the big picture.

The victory of former President Trump on November 5, which was one of the main pillars of our bullish expectation for the long-term outlook in digital assets, produced a result in line with our forecasts. The continuation of the Fed’s rate cut cycle (albeit with cautious messages from Powell in his last speech…) and the volume in BTC ETFs, indicating an increase in institutional investor interest (in addition, MicroStrategy’s BTC purchases, Microsoft starting to evaluate the purchase issue, BlackRock’s BTC ETF options starting trading…) support our upside forecast for the big picture for now.

In the short term, given the nature of the market and pricing behavior, we think it would not be surprising to see occasional respite or pullbacks in digital assets. At this point, it is worth reiterating that fundamental dynamics remain bullish. While Bitcoin, the largest digital currency, extending each of its record highs may continue to whet the appetite of buyers to take new, upside positions, we will watch this group struggle with the masses who may be looking for profit realizations and speculators looking to exploit potential declines after rapid rises. On the BTC front, we can say that buyers are leading the battle for now.

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

BTC/USDT

MicroStrategy announced that it has increased its bond issuance target from $1.75 billion to $2.6 billion for additional Bitcoin purchases. The company stated that it will use some of the proceeds to buy Bitcoin. Following this development, Bitcoin price continued to surpass its all-time high (ATH) and remained 7% away on its journey to six-digit levels.

When we look at the BTC technical outlook after the latest development, it reached 94,589 with ATH attempts during the day. As the positive developments for BTC continue, the upward momentum in its price continues to strengthen. The increase in spot ETF option volumes with the US market may cause new ATH levels to be seen in BTC price during the day. As we mentioned earlier, if the 95,000 level is exceeded, it may bring a sharp movement towards the 100,000 level with increasing buying pressure. In case of a pullback, the reverse trading opportunity at each ATH level may pull the price back to the minor support level of 92,500.

Supports 92,550 – 91,350 – 90,000

Resistances 94,430 – 95,000 – 100,000

ETH/USDT

ETH rose to the resistance level of 3,353 by experiencing a high-volume rise with the break of the 3,145 level during the day. Looking at Open Interest, it is clear that positions are increasing, but when Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) is analyzed, it is clearly seen that the rise is coming from the spot side. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) and Relative Strength Index (RSI) remain positive without any divergence. Closes above 3.353 may quickly move the price to 3.534 with the acceleration in momentum and a reaction from here may come a re-test to 3.353. Another scenario is that if the 3.353 level cannot be exceeded, the rise may continue after a re-test to the 3.256 level. The 3.256 region can be said as the most important support level to be considered. In the case of closures below this level, investors should be wary of a possible bull trap.

Supports 3,256 – 3,145 – 3,045

Resistances 3,353 – 3,534 – 3,680

XRP/USDT

XRP, which managed to stay above the 1.12 level during the day, can be said to have reached the end of the accumulation phase. The positive outlook on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and the price hovering above the intermediate support zone of 1.12 indicate that XRP may make an attack towards the 1.23 level again. However, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) turned negative again and its negative structure shows that investors should be careful against the loss of the 1.12 level. With the loss of this level, declines can be seen rapidly down to 1.07 levels.

Supports 1.0709 – 1.0333 – 0.9382

Resistances 1.2386 – 1.3487 – 1.4463

SOL/USDT

On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). Since November 4, SOL, which has been in an uptrend since November 4, continues to be priced by maintaining this trend. At the same time, we see a rising wedge pattern emerging on the chart. A rising wedge is often seen as a bearish signal. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, money inflows are positive, but there is an increase in inflows again. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 has moved from the overbought zone to the mid levels. The 247.53 level appears to be a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Solana ecosystem. If it breaks here, the rise may continue. In case of possible retracements due to macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, the support levels of 222.61 and 193.78 may be triggered again. If the price reaches these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 237.53 – 233.06 – 222.61

Resistances 247.53 – 259.13 – 275.00

DOGE/USDT

Dogecoin’s active addresses reached an all-time high, surpassing 1.33 million daily participants. This increase reflects growing network demand, which is a bullish indicator for the cryptocurrency. The expanding trading volume touts DOGE as a safe haven. Rising network activity has historically supported price gains. Investor confidence, coupled with broader market cues, increases the likelihood of continued upward pressure on the price.

Technically, the Doge continues to consolidate above 0.35 since our analysis in the morning. However, a bull flag pattern has formed. If the pattern works after a short pullback or consolidation, the uptrend may continue. On the 4-hour timeframe, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) is above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This may mean that the uptrend will continue. But the gap between the two averages is still too wide. This could cause pullbacks. At the same time, the Relative Strength Index (RSI)14 has moved from overbought to neutral. However, when we examine the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)20 indicator, it remains neutral. The 0.42456 level stands out as a very strong resistance point in the rises driven by both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Doge coin. If DOGE, which tested here, maintains its momentum and rises above this level, the rise may continue strongly. In case of retracements due to possible macroeconomic reasons or profit sales, the support levels of 0.33668 and 0.28164 can be triggered again. If the price hits these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise if momentum increases.

Supports 0.36600 – 0.33668 – 0.28164

Resistances 0.42456 – 0.45173 – 0.50954

RECHTLICHER HINWEIS

The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.