Are Trump’s Tariffs Illegal?

Market Copass

Are Trump’s Tariffs Illegal?

• A panel of the US Court of International Trade in Manhattan unanimously ruled that the bulk of Trump’s tariffs were imposed through unfair use of emergency legislation.
• The court gave 10 days to implement the ruling, and the Justice Department has appealed the decision. If the Court of Appeals does not allow Trump to implement the higher tariffs during the pendency of the case, the ruling could permanently block them.
• Nvidia announced its financials yesterday and its predictions for the future were also welcomed positively by the markets.
• The published minutes of the last Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the US Federal Reserve (FED) highlighted the officials’ stance that they would not be in a hurry for another rate cut. The Fed is not expected to cut interest rates before its Settembre meeting.
• The optimism generated by the recent news flow in global markets was not fully reciprocated in digital asset prices at first. On the contrary, the global appreciation of the dollar has also put pressure on major cryptocurrencies with a base asset effect.
• Later in the day, comments on the US Court’s recent rulings will be under scrutiny. In addition, US economic growth (GDP) data, speeches by FOMC officials and the ongoing Bitcoin Conference will be closely monitored.
• While we maintain our expectation of limited upside for the short term, we maintain our upside view for the medium and long term as mentioned below.

US GDP Change

Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy choices have been a challenging factor for the entire world in recent months. Economic actors are also facing the challenges of this highly uncertain environment as they formulate their expectations and plans for the future. This situation has some implications. The most important one is the possibility of a slowdown in economic activity. In this respect, it will be very important to see how much the US economy grew in the first quarter of the year, including the period after Gennaio 20, when Trump took over in the Oval Office. According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces this statistic, the US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a consequence of Trump’s unpredictable policies. It was the first decline since the first quarter of 2022.

It seems that businesses and consumers turned to stockpiling in preparation for rising costs, which contributed to the slowdown, with imports rising by 41.3%. Consumer spending also slowed to 1.8%, its lowest level since the second quarter of 2023. Federal government spending fell 5.1%, the sharpest decline since the first quarter of 2022.

Source: Bloomberg

The new data will be the second estimate for the same period, and we will watch to see if there will be a revision. It is still difficult to quantify and measure the impact of Trump’s decisions on consumer behavior. The data will allow for healthier and longer-term projections on the direction of economic growth.

In terms of immediate market reaction, we think that a data above the consensus expectation may increase risk appetite and have a positive impact on digital assets. A lower-than-expected GDP data may have a negative impact from this point of view.

Digital Compass

In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, we have already seen that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and that the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. Taking into account the latest developments on a global scale, we maintain our bullish expectation for the medium and long term.

Per un'analisi dettagliata del nostro rapporto di analisi tecnica bi-giornaliero e degli ultimi sviluppi degli asset digitali clicca qui.

I punti salienti della giornata

Importanti dati del calendario economico

INFORMAZIONI

*Il calendario si basa sul fuso orario UTC (Coordinated Universal Time).

Il contenuto del calendario economico sulla pagina corrispondente è ottenuto da fornitori di notizie e dati affidabili. Le notizie contenute nel calendario economico, la data e l'ora dell'annuncio delle notizie, le possibili variazioni delle cifre precedenti, delle aspettative e delle cifre annunciate sono state realizzate dalle istituzioni fornitrici di dati. Darkex non può essere ritenuta responsabile di eventuali cambiamenti che potrebbero derivare da situazioni simili.

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AVVISO LEGALE

Le informazioni, i commenti e le raccomandazioni sugli investimenti contenuti nel presente documento non costituiscono servizi di consulenza sugli investimenti. I servizi di consulenza sugli investimenti sono forniti da istituti autorizzati su base personale, tenendo conto delle preferenze di rischio e di rendimento dei singoli. I commenti e le raccomandazioni contenuti nel presente documento sono di tipo generale. Tali raccomandazioni potrebbero non essere adatte alla vostra situazione finanziaria e alle vostre preferenze di rischio e rendimento. Pertanto, prendere una decisione di investimento basandosi esclusivamente sulle informazioni contenute nel presente documento potrebbe non portare a risultati in linea con le vostre aspettative.