MARKET COMPASS
Positive Sentiment on Digital Assets
Crypto investors are poised to end a week that has seen traditional markets on edge amid concerns over the US fiscal situation in a very positive climate. The US Senate’s approval of GENUIS, a bill to regulate stablecoins, has encouraged markets to embrace digital assets. As Bitcoin tested all-time highs, altcoins followed suit, gaining in value. Institutional investor interest has also continued to play a role in recent price gains.
The additional fiscal pressure that US President Donald Trump’s tax cut legislation would put on the world’s largest economy was the main factor that worried global markets last week. While bond yields rose, especially long-term bond yields showed a significant upward trend. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) also warned the US about its debt and fiscal structure. In this context, major stock indices were generally on a downward trend. Towards the end of the week, however, the anxious atmosphere dissipated to some extent.
Developments on trade wars had supported the perception in the markets that “the worst was over”. On Friday, the US and China reiterated their agreement to maintain communication. Moreover, although there are signs that tensions may remain high in the Far East and the Middle East, there are growing expectations that a “peace” news may emerge from the negotiations between Ukraine and Russia. Therefore, compared to previous days and weeks, risks seem to have eased in terms of US fiscal structure, trade wars and geopolitical factors. Apart from these topics, the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut path will remain under scrutiny and next week, both the speeches of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members and macro indicators for the world’s largest economy will be closely monitored.
Next week, crypto investors will have one ear to the ground at the Bitcoin conference in Las Vegas. The event will bring together industry leaders to discuss the latest developments important for the ecosystem. Apart from this, the main dynamics that will affect the global investment climate will be on our agenda and we will detail them. Meanwhile, let us remind you that the markets will be closed on the first business day of the new week due to “Memorial Day” in the US.
May 28 – FOMC Minutes
The US Federal Reserve (FED) holds eight Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings each year and publishes the minutes three weeks after each meeting. As a detailed document of the FOMC meeting, they allow us to see what economic and financial factors were at play when voting to set interest rates and can provide clues about the FED’s next move. While a more “hawkish” stance than expected may put pressure on digital asset prices, minutes with relatively “dovish” messages may support gains.
May 29 – US GDP Change
Donald Trump’s unpredictable policy choices have been a challenging factor for the entire world in recent months. Economic actors are also facing the challenges of this highly uncertain environment as they formulate their expectations and plans for the future. This situation has some implications. The most important one is the possibility of a slowdown in economic activity. In this respect, it will be very important to see how much the US economy grew in the first quarter of the year, including the period after January 20, when Trump took over in the Oval Office. According to preliminary data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, which produces this statistic, the US economy contracted by 0.3% in the first quarter of 2025, reflecting a consequence of Trump’s unpredictable policies. It was the first decline since the first quarter of 2022.
It seems that businesses and consumers turned to stockpiling in preparation for rising costs, which contributed to the slowdown, with imports rising by 41.3%. Consumer spending also slowed to 1.8%, its lowest level since the second quarter of 2023. Federal government spending fell 5.1%, the sharpest decline since the first quarter of 2022.
Source: Bloomberg
The new data will be the second estimate for the same period and we will watch to see if there will be a revision. It is still difficult to quantify and measure the impact of Trump’s decisions on consumer behavior. The data will allow for healthier and longer-term projections on the direction of economic growth.
In terms of immediate market reaction, we think that a data above the consensus expectation may increase risk appetite and have a positive impact on digital assets. A lower-than-expected GDP data may have a negative impact from this point of view.
May 30- FED’s Favorite Inflation Indicator PCE
Markets will be closely watching April’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data for April for clues on the timing of the US Federal Reserve’s next rate cut decision. This indicator is known as the preferred gauge for FOMC officials to monitor changes in inflation.
Source: Bloomberg
According to the latest data, core PCE was unchanged in March compared to the previous month (0.0%). On an annual basis, core PCE increased by 2.6%. Thus, the index slowed down compared to the 3% increase in February and recorded its lowest increase since March 2021. We can see that the Trump effect was also felt in this data, as the rate of increase in prices slowed down due to the declining demand in the service sector and the decline in the prices of non-durable consumer goods. Our expectation is as follows, slightly above the general consensus.
A higher-than-expected data may support expectations that the FED will maintain its cautious stance on interest rate cuts, reducing risk appetite and putting pressure on digital assets. A lower-than-expected data may pave the way for value gains with the opposite effect.
*General Information About Forecasts
In addition to the general market expectations, the forecasts shared in this report are based on econometric modeling tools developed by our research department. Different structures were considered for each indicator, and appropriate regression models were constructed in line with data frequency (monthly/quarterly), leading economic indicators and data history.
The basic approach in all models is to interpret historical relationships based on data and to produce forecasts that have predictive power with current data. The performance of the models used is measured by standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and is regularly re-evaluated and improved. While the outputs of the models guide our economic analysis, they also aim to contribute to strategic decision-making processes for our investors and business partners. Data is sourced directly from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) platform in an up-to-date and automated manner, so that each forecast is based on the latest economic data. As the research department, we are also working on artificial intelligence-based modeling methods (e.g. Random Forest, Lasso/Ridge regressions, ensemble models) to improve forecast accuracy and react more sensitively to market dynamics. The macroeconomic context should be taken into account in the interpretation of model outputs, and it should be kept in mind that there may be deviations in forecast performance due to economic shocks, policy changes and unforeseen external factors. With this set of studies, updated every month, we aim to provide a more transparent, consistent and data-driven basis for monitoring the macroeconomic outlook and strengthening decision support processes.
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INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable data providers. The news in the calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions.
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