MARKET COMPASS
Non-Farm Payrolls Day
- As trade tensions between the US and China have started to ease, global markets have turned their attention to critical macro indicators in the US. April non-farm payrolls change data, which will be released today, will be important after the last set of data.
- Risk appetite in the markets has increased with the information flow that China is willing to sit at the negotiation table with the US.
- European stock markets and Wall Street futures are in the green on the back of positive corporate balance sheets.
- Major digital assets continue to maintain their gains by taking the impact of the investment climate. The US labor statistics for April, which will be released today, may have an impact on the markets by pricing in expectations about the US Federal Reserve’s (FED) interest rate cut course.
- We continue to think that the potential for an intermediate correction for the short term is increasing, but the main direction is up.
US Labor Market Statistics
Today, we will be receiving the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for April, which will provide clues about the US Federal Reserve’s rate cut path and the tightness of the financial ecosystem in the coming period. In addition, March figures such as average hourly earnings and the unemployment rate will also be monitored.
In March, the US economy added 228K jobs (Market Expectation: 137K).
Source: Bloomberg
Our forecast for the highly sensitive NFP data is that the US economy added approximately 152K new jobs in the non-farm sectors in April. In the Bloomberg terminal, we see that the consensus is more pessimistic, around 138K (5.2.2025).
Source: Bloomberg
We believe that if the April NFP data, which will be published in the shadow of the deterioration that Trump’s tariff-centered foreign policy may create domestically, is slightly below expectations, this will be priced as a metric that may create an expectation that the FED may act more boldly to lower the interest rate, thus increasing risk appetite and having a positive impact on financial instruments, including digital assets. We think that a slightly higher-than-expected data may have a similar but opposite effect. However, an NFP data that is well below the forecasts may re-trigger recession (stagflation) concerns with a commentary on the health of the US economy, which may put selling pressure on assets considered to be risky. It should be noted here that we also expect a much better-than-anticipated reading to have a positive impact. It is worth noting that we anticipate these effects by taking into account the current state of market sentiment.
Digital Compass
In the US, the locomotive of the world economy, we consider the strategic crypto reserve, which started with Trump’s nomination process, as a very important development. However, the fact that the markets had already priced in the “best case scenario” before and after the US elections and the “less than perfect” news on this issue put pressure on digital assets. We continue to keep the strategic reserve issue in our equation as a positive variable for cryptocurrencies in the long run. On the other hand, we think that there is no new news flow that will create pressure in the medium term, there will not be a development that will create enthusiasm in the crypto market, and concerns that global economic activity may slow down in global markets, especially with Trump’s tariffs, will gradually decrease. Accordingly, we soften our view that “pressure may continue in the medium term” and align it with our long-term bullish outlook. In the short term, markets will continue to be sensitive to macro indicators and tariff developments.
For a detailed review of our twice-daily technical analysis report and the latest developments in digital assets click here.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
| Time | News | Expectation | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ethena (ENA): 40.63MM Token Unlock | |||
| 12:30 | US Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) (Apr) | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| 12:30 | US Nonfarm Payrolls (Apr) | 138K | 228K |
| 12:30 | US Unemployment Rate (Apr) | 4.2% | 4.2% |
INFORMATION:
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
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*General Information About Forecasts
Forecasts for the macroeconomic data presented in this report are based on econometric modeling tools developed by our research department. Different structures were considered for each indicator, and appropriate regression models were constructed in line with data frequency (monthly/quarterly), leading economic indicators and data history.
The basic approach in all models is to interpret historical relationships based on data and to produce forecasts that have predictive power with current data. The performance of the models used is measured by standard metrics such as mean absolute error (MAE) and is regularly re-evaluated and improved. While the outputs of the models guide our economic analysis, they also aim to contribute to strategic decision-making processes for our investors and business partners. Data is sourced directly from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Data) platform in an up-to-date and automated manner, so that every forecast is based on the latest economic data. As the research department, we are also working on artificial intelligence-based modeling methods (e.g. Random Forest, Lasso/Ridge regressions, ensemble models) in order to improve forecast accuracy and react more sensitively to market dynamics. The macroeconomic context should be taken into account in the interpretation of model outputs, and it should be kept in mind that there may be deviations in forecast performance due to economic shocks, policy changes and unforeseen external factors. With this monthly updated working set, we aim to provide a more transparent, consistent and data-driven basis for monitoring the macroeconomic outlook and strengthening decision support processes.
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