MARKET SUMMARY
Latest Situation in Crypto Assets
*Prepared on 10.4.2024 at 06:00 (UTC)
WHAT’S LEFT BEHIND
Claim: Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious creator of Bitcoin, has been found!
HBO claimed that it will solve a 15-year mystery with the video it shared today. On October 8, it was stated that the identity of the mysterious inventor of Bitcoin will be revealed in the documentary they will broadcast
Negative Flow in Bitcoin ETFs for the Second Day in a Row
US spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds (ETFs) experienced a significant net outflow. A total of $91.76 million worth of funds exited these ETFs, while this negative flow continued for the second day in a row.
IMF Warns El Salvador Again About Bitcoin
The IMF advised El Salvador to narrow the scope of its Bitcoin law and strengthen the regulatory framework. The IMF emphasized the need for transparency and additional regulations, noting Bitcoin’s potential risks to financial stability.
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE DAY
Important Economic Calender Data
INFORMATION
*The calendar is based on UTC (Coordinated Universal Time) time zone. The economic calendar content on the relevant page is obtained from reliable news and data providers. The news in the economic calendar content, the date and time of the announcement of the news, possible changes in the previous, expectations and announced figures are made by the data provider institutions. Darkex cannot be held responsible for possible changes that may arise from similar situations.
MARKET COMPASS
The most critical day of the week in terms of macroeconomic indicators has arrived. Markets, which have been shaped by the reflection of the rising tensions in the Middle East on prices throughout the week, will likely seek direction today with the US employment data for September. Especially the change in non-farm payrolls (NFP) and the unemployment rate will be under the spotlight of investors.
Bombs and gunfire continue to ring out across the Middle East. While Israel is said to have targeted senior Hamas members, the country may target Iran’s energy sector in retaliation.
Under these dynamics, US stock markets closed on the negative side once again yesterday, while this morning we see that greens are coming to the fore in Asian indices. In the continent, where Chinese markets are closed due to the holiday, it is stated that the new Japanese Prime Minister Ishiba has instructed to work on a new stimulus package. European stock markets are expected to make a flat start to the critical new day for now. The dollar index is holding on to the rises it recorded as the latest data from the US generally came in better than expected and safe-haven demand increased with rising geopolitical tensions. Oil, on the other hand, continued to rise with the latest news from the Middle East. Digital assets were negatively affected by the risk-off phase. This morning, there was a weak reaction to the recent rises.
US Employment Data in the Shadow of the Middle East
US employment data will be important for crypto assets today. Potential news from the Middle East will be followed by investors, but macro indicators may have an impact on prices today. We can easily say that the slight rise observed during Asian trading is extremely fragile. In order to maintain this rally, at least no worse news from the Middle East and US data should be supportive of risk appetite. Considering the recent state of the markets, there may not be a significant market reaction as long as the NFP is not much below the forecasts. An unemployment rate above 4.3% may be perceived negatively. In such a combination of bad data, we think that the markets will price in concerns about the health of the country’s economy rather than the next move of the US Federal Reserve (FED) and we may see a decline in digital assets in parallel. On the other hand, a data set that is not so bad but cannot be confused with expectations may bring some upside to digital assets by pulling the dollar down with the expectation that interest rate cuts may accelerate. On the other hand, if we see positive data, we think that this could have a positive impact on digital assets. Of course, although it is very important, it would be useful to evaluate the incoming data as a whole, not just the NFP data.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
Tensions in the Middle East are creating uncertainty in the market. Israel’s vow to retaliate for Iran’s attack has led to market jitters and negatively impacted institutional investors’ interest in Bitcoin ETFs. In the last two days, $91.76 million worth of funds have been outflowed from Bitcoin ETFs, reflecting an increase in investors’ perception of risk. Although the Bitcoin price shows resistance in this uncertain environment, the pressure and anxiety on the market is driving investors to be cautious. Today, employment data from the US may affect the Bitcoin price, and if it comes in above expectations, it may lead the FED to a more moderate interest rate cut. In the BTC 4-hour technical analysis, the price, which tested below the support level of 60,650 three times yesterday and saw below the 60,000 level, did not close below this zone and turned its direction upwards. BTC, which was at 61,200 at the time of writing, is pricing above the minor support level of 61,100. Persistence above this level may allow BTC to make a move towards the 62,300 level again in the face of the uncertain, risky environment but positive data leading to an interest rate cut. In the face of a news flow from the Israeli front during the day, BTC may increase the selling pressure again and a sharp retracement towards the 58,350 level may be experienced with the break of the 60,650 support point.
Supports 60,650 – 59,400 – 58,350
Resistances 62,300 – 64,400 – 65,725
ETH/USDT
Ethereum rose slightly overnight and started to approach 2,400 resistance again. The RSI’s return to positive from the oversold zone, the crossing of the tenkan level, the upward trend in CMF and momentum seems to be positive. If there are no new developments regarding the war, the 2,400 level can be exceeded during the day and rises up to 2,428 levels can be expected. In the opposite scenario, Ethereum, which may decline to 2,346, may experience declines towards 2,270 if it breaks this level.
Supports 2,346 – 2,270 – 2,194
Resistances 2,400 – 2,428 – 2,490
LINK/USDT
MACD seems to have turned positive for LINK, which surpassed the 10.85 level and started to rise slightly. Positive structures have been formed on Momentum, RSI and OBV. However, there is a negative mismatch on CMF. We may see attacks to 11.29 and 11.55 levels. A re-break of the 10.85 level may limit the rise or bring declines to 10.30 levels. The breakdown of the mismatch on CMF can be seen as a serious signal for the beginning of an uptrend.
Supports 10.85 – 10.30 – 9.29
Resistances 11.55 – 11.86 – 12.42
SOL/USDT
The data coming from the US today is very important. It can determine the direction as a trend. These monthly average hourly earnings data, non-farm employment data and unemployment rate data are among the data to be followed. In the Solana ecosystem, Solana founder Yakovenko criticizes the US government for failing to create local blockchain employment. Yakovenko blames US policies for the relocation of Solana jobs overseas. The Solana co-founder expressed his disappointment with the US approach to crypto regulations. Technically, the price has recovered compared to the previous hours. 135.18 support level is working and has started to rise from here. The 137.77 – 143.64 levels appear as the first resistance levels in the rises due to both macroeconomic conditions and innovations in the Solana ecosystem. If it rises above these levels, the rise may continue. In the sales to be made by investors due to political and macroeconomic conditions, the support levels of 135.18 – 127.17 should be followed. If the price comes to these support levels, a potential bullish opportunity may arise.
Supports 135.18 – 127.17 – 121.20
Resistances 137.77 – 143.64 – 147.40
ADA/USDT
The data coming from the US today is very important. It can determine the direction as a trend. These monthly average hourly earnings data, non-farm employment data and unemployment rate data are among the data to be followed. Technically, when we look at it, it has risen by testing the support formed since August 6. The 0.3301 level stands out as a strong support in the retracements that will be experienced with possible political and macroeconomic news. At the same time, the 200 EMA could not break the 50 EMA average. This could be a bullish sign. If the positive atmosphere in the ecosystem continues, 0.3596 – 0.3651 levels appear as strong resistance. In the continuation of the fear in the market, 0.3301 – 0.3166 levels can be followed as support. If it breaks these levels, the decline may deepen.
Supports 0.3301 – 0.3228 – 0.3166
Resistances 0.3469 – 0.3596 – 0.3651
AVAX/USDT
AVAX, which opened yesterday at 25.33, fell by about 2.5% during the day and closed the day at 24.66. Today, US non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data will be released. There is currently recession and Middle East anxiety in the market. The announcement of non-farm payrolls much lower than expected and the unemployment rate much higher than expected may trigger fears of recession and create selling pressure.
AVAX, which is currently trading at 25.10, is moving to the Bollinger middle band on the 4-hour chart and is very close to the oversold zone with the RSI value of 37. It can be expected to make some rise from these levels. In such a case, it may move to the Bollinger middle band and test the 25.60 resistance. If there is news of escalating tension in the Middle East or if the data to be announced is negative, selling pressure may increase and test the 24.65 support. As long as it stays above 24.65 support during the day, the desire to rise may continue. With the break of 24.65 support, sales may increase.
Supports 24.65 – 23.80 – 22.80
Resistances 25.60 – 26.54 – 27.20
TRX/USDT
TRX, which started yesterday at 0.1545, rose 2% during the day and closed the day at 0.1577. Non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate data will be released by the US today. The market will closely follow both these data and the latest situation in the Middle East. TRX, which is currently trading at 0.1567, is in the Bollinger upper band on the 4-hour chart and can be expected to move slightly down from its level with RSI 58. In such a case, it may move to the Bollinger middle band and test the 0.1550 support. If the data to be announced is positive and the tension in the Middle East decreases, it may want to test the 0.1603 resistance by closing the candle above the 0.1575 resistance. As long as TRX stays above 0.1482 support, the desire to rise may continue. If this support is broken downwards, sales can be expected to increase.
Supports 0.1550 – 0.1532 – 0.1500
Resistances 0.1575 – 0.1603 – 0.1641
XRP/USDT
Yesterday’s daily close in XRP was realized at 0.5214 with a 3% loss in value. Today, after falling in the opening candle in the 4-hour analysis, it started to rise with purchases at 0.5146 and is currently trading at 0.5283. XRP, which has been declining due to negative developments in the last 4 days, is trading in a horizontal band between 0.51 and 0.53 levels yesterday and today. In the 4-hour analysis, if the rise seen today continues, XRP may test the resistance levels of 0.5351-0.5431-0.5515. If the decline in recent days continues, XRP may test support levels of 0.5231-0.5131-0.5026 in its decline.
XRP started to rise with purchases at 0.51 in its decline. Similarly, it may offer a long trading opportunity with purchases at 0.50 and 0.51 levels. In its rise, it may offer a short trading opportunity with possible sales at 0.54 and 0.55 levels.
EMA20 (Blue Line) – EMA50 (Green Line) – EMA200 (Purple Line)
Supports 0. 5231 – 0. 5131 – 0.5026
Resistances 0. 5351 – 0.5431 – 0.5515
DOGE/USDT
Yesterday, DOGE traded in a horizontal band between 0.1035 and 0.1080 levels, with the daily close at 0.1050. DOGE, which started today with a rise, is currently trading at 0.1080 with the rise it caught in the first 2 candles in the 4-hour analysis. If the rise continues, DOGE may test the resistance levels of 0.1101-0.1122 in the continuation of the rise if the 0.1080 resistance level is broken and the candle closure occurs in the 4-hour analysis above the EMA20 and EMA200 levels. In the event that the rise gives way to the decline that has appeared in recent days, DOGE may test the support levels of 0.1054-0.1035-0.1013.
DOGE is on the rise and if the 0.1080 resistance level is broken, the EMA20 and EMA200 levels come to the fore. It may decline with the sales that may come from these levels and may offer a short trading opportunity. If it is traded above these levels and experiences candle closure, it may offer a long trading opportunity with its rise.
EMA20 (Blue Line) – EMA50 (Green Line) – EMA200 (Purple Line)
Supports 0.1054 – 0.1035 – 0.1013
Resistances 0.1080 – 0.1101 – 0.1122
DOT/USDT
When we examine the Polkadot (DOT) chart, it seems that the price seems to have maintained its permanence above the 4.080 support. Buyer pressure seems strong according to the CMF oscillator. If the price holds above the EMA50 level, it may move towards the EMA200 levels. On the other hand, we see that the buyer pressure is decreasing on the MACD compared to the previous hour. In this case, the price may want to retest the 4,080 levels.
(Blue line: EMA50, Red line: EMA200)
Supports 4.080 – 3.975 – 3.875
Resistances 4.180 – 4.210 – 4.265
SHIB/USDT
Shiba Inu (SHIB) marketing lead LUCIE responded to critics of the SHIB, BONE and LEASH tokens, emphasizing that the contracts for these tokens have been canceled and that the platform is fully transparent. LUCIE stated that prices are set by the community and market forces, and that fraud allegations are baseless. He also advised the community to study the tokenomics structure of the projects. The Shiba Inu ecosystem is looking forward to the ShibaCon event in Bangkok in November. SHIB, which has not lost the 0.00001565 level with increasing burn rates, is moving towards the 0.00001690 resistance level. When we examine the MACD oscillator, we see that the buyer pressure has decreased compared to the previous hour. In this context, a correction towards 0.00001630 levels can be expected. We can say that if the price maintains above the 0.00001630 level, it will move towards the 0.00001690 resistance level.
(Blue line: EMA50, Red line: EMA200)
Supports 0.00001630 – 0.00001565 – 0.00001530
Resistances 0.00001690 – 0.00001765 – 0.00001810
LEGAL NOTICE
The investment information, comments and recommendations contained herein do not constitute investment advice. Investment advisory services are provided individually by authorized institutions taking into account the risk and return preferences of individuals. The comments and recommendations contained herein are of a general nature. These recommendations may not be suitable for your financial situation and risk and return preferences. Therefore, making an investment decision based solely on the information contained herein may not produce results in line with your expectations.
