TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
BTC/USDT
While digital asset regulations and corporate crypto strategies are at the center of the agenda in the US, this week the markets are closely following the developments on the regulatory front along with the Fed Interest Rate policy. The House of Representatives aims to provide a framework on topics such as authority sharing and registration mechanisms between the CFTC and the SEC by sharing the draft of the Digital Asset Market Structure Act of 2025 with the public. The fact that companies such as BlackRock and Fidelity will take part in the fourth crypto roundtable hosted by the SEC on May 12 shows that the regulatory process for the crypto market will further mature. On the other hand, while the expectation that the Fed will maintain its “wait-and-see” policy in tomorrow’s Fed interest rate policy, which is the main focus of the market, it is noteworthy that BlackRock increased its BTC assets to $ 5.4 billion on the institutional side.
Looking at the technical outlook, BTC continues to trade in the 94,000-95,000-band range with low volatile movements. Although it sags below 94,000 from time to time, the effort to hold above this level draws attention. While the cautious stance remains at the forefront in the market focusing on the Fed interest rate meeting, the wave trend oscillator started to give a buy signal in the oversold zone, creating the technical basis for a possible recovery. However, momentum indicators are still weak and far from strong enough to support the upside. The price is stuck between the 50 and 100-day moving averages. This suggests that the directional levels are becoming clearer for BTC, which is in the decision phase. A close above 95,000 on the upside would generate a positive signal, while a break above 92,800 in the downside scenario could lead to a pullback to 89,000. Looking at the liquidation data, increasing long positions at 93,000 indicate that the price may test this area as a support, while short positions at 98,000 stand out as a potential liquidation zone in case of a rise. This distribution suggests that volatility may increase in BTC price in the coming days. Although there is a bullish expectation on the 4-hour charts in technical terms, the permanence of this movement will depend on fundamental developments and especially post-Fed statements. In this direction, the direction in which liquidity cleansing will be done first may give us a message about the short-term trend for a reversal in the opposite direction.
Supports 94,000 – 92,800 – 91,400
Resistances 95,000 – 97,000 – 98,000
ETH/USDT
After retreating to the kumo cloud support level in the ichimoku indicator yesterday evening, ETH managed to rise to the resistance zone at $1,829 with the reaction it received from this region. However, it is seen that weak signals stand out in technical indicators regarding the sustainability of this rise. With the selling pressure in the morning hours, the price fell back down to the $1,798 level, which is the lower band of the sand cloud, and this level is currently a critical support in the short term.
Technical indicators generally suggest that momentum is starting to weaken. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator moved downwards, rejecting its key moving average based MA line twice, indicating that bullish reluctance is becoming clearer. At the same time, Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) remained in negative territory, indicating that inflows are limited and bullish pricing is yet to be backed by strong capital support. This may cause bullish sentiment to remain weak in the short term. When the structural data of the Ichimoku indicator is analyzed, the fact that the price hovers below both tenkan and kijun levels and shows compression in the kumo cloud suggests that downward pressure is prominent in the overall technical outlook.
If the price sags below the $1,798 level, it may cause negative signals to gain strength within the ichimoku structure. In case of persistence below this level, the possibility of the price retreating to the next support level of $1,756 will increase. On the other hand, a strong close above the $1,829 level could break the current negative structure and create the potential for the price to enter a new uptrend.
Top of Form
Below the Form
Supports 1,756 – 1,686 – 1,632
Resistances 1,829 – 1,925 – 2,131
XRP/USDT
The weakening trend in XRP price continues. The price, which has been trying to maintain the main support at the $2.12 level since yesterday evening, has sagged below this important technical level with the selling pressure in the morning hours. This breakout can be considered as a negative signal in terms of the short-term technical outlook. In particular, persistence below this level may cause the downward trend to deepen.
Technical indicators also support the current weak structure. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator continues to trend downwards in the negative territory, indicating that liquidity outflow from the market continues. This suggests that buyers remain weak and bullish price movements are unable to find strong capital support. On the other hand, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) indicator is also hovering at low levels and is still not signaling a recovery, indicating that the market remains under downward pressure without momentum. Momentum indicators also continue their bearish trend, confirming that the price’s capacity to generate an upside reaction is limited.
In this context, if the price continues to trade below the $2.12 support, it may lead to the continuation of the technically weak structure and a new downward wave. In this scenario, the $2.02 level stands out as the next major support and this area could create a short-term balance area for the price. However, it should be noted that if this level cannot be maintained, the selling pressure on XRP may increase further. On the other hand, if the price rises above the $2.12 level again, it may provide a relief to the market in the short term and cause the start of upward correction movements, albeit limited. However, for the permanence of such a movement, both a recovery in momentum indicators and volumetric supportive data will be required.
Supports 2.0201 – 1.8932 – 1.6309
Resistances 2.1204 – 2.2154 – 2.3938
SOL/USDT
DeFi Development Corp to acquire SOL validator business for $3.5 million. The validator has an average delegated stake of 500,000 SOLs worth $75.5 million. Three new wallets attracted 145,000 SOLs from a centralized exchange, signaling a strong backlog.
SOL price continued its sideways movements. The asset remains in the middle levels of the downtrend that started on April 25. After testing the 50 EMA (Blue Line), the price pulled back and retested the strong support at $144.35. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) remained above the 200 EMA (Black Line). This suggests that the uptrend may continue in the medium term. However, the fact that the price is between both moving averages suggests that the overall market is in the decision phase. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) is negative, but an increase in daily inflows may cause CMF to move into positive territory. Relative Strength Index (RSI14) is slightly bullish, but selling pressure continues. The $163.80 level stands out as a strong resistance point in the event of a rally on the back of macroeconomic data or positive news on the Solana ecosystem. If this level is broken upwards, the rise can be expected to continue. If there are pullbacks due to contrary developments or profit realizations, the $138.73 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these support levels, the increase in buying momentum may offer a potential bullish opportunity.
Supports 144.35 – 138.73 – 133.74
Resistances 150.67 – 163.80 – 171.82
DOGE/USDT
DOGE price continued its sideways trend. Unable to break the downtrend that started on March 6, the asset continues to be priced below this trend. The asset, which tested the 200 EMA (Black Line) as resistance, retreated from there and accelerated slightly upwards from the strong support at $0.16686. On the 4-hour chart, the 50 EMA (Blue Line) continues to be above the 200 EMA (Black Line). The fact that the price is below both moving averages indicates that downward momentum is strong in the medium term. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF20) indicator is in the extreme negative territory. At the same time, an increase in money outflows may move CMF deeper into the negative zone. Relative Strength Index (RSI14), on the other hand, accelerated from the oversold territory, slightly increased and is at the mid-level of the negative zone. Also, bullish divergence should be monitored. The $0.17766 level stands out as a strong resistance zone in case of a possible rise in line with political developments, macroeconomic data or positive news flow in the DOGE ecosystem. In the opposite case or possible negative news flow, the $0.16686 level may be retested. In case of a decline to these levels, the increase in momentum may start a new bullish wave.
Supports 0.16686 – 0.15680 – 0.14952
Resistances 0.17766 – 0.18566 – 0.19909
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